{"id":9596,"date":"2012-11-20T08:15:21","date_gmt":"2012-11-20T07:15:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/circulares-sindicales\/el-increible-informe-de-oliver-wyman-ii-de-3\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T00:49:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-15T22:49:36","slug":"el-increible-informe-de-oliver-wyman-ii-de-3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/noticias\/el-increible-informe-de-oliver-wyman-ii-de-3\/","title":{"rendered":"El increible informe de Oliver Wyman.(II) de 3"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><b><u><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><b><u><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">El c\u00e1lculo de las p\u00e9rdidas<\/span><\/u><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/b><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Una vez repasadas las <strong>inconsistencias encontradas en la metodolog\u00eda<\/strong> empleada para la evaluaci\u00f3n de las p\u00e9rdidas veamos que dice el informe respecto a las p\u00e9rdidas esperadas en el sistema bancario<strong>:<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"478\" border=\"0\" height=\"300\" alt=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2026\/04\/RH2.avif\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Aqu\u00ed han de comentarse dos cuestiones fundamentales para el an\u00e1lisis del agujero financiero que presentan nuestras instituciones financieras.<\/span><span new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad?=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad?=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\">&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul style=\"margin-top: 0cm;\" type=\"square\">\n<li style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">En primer lugar, llama poderosamente la atenci\u00f3n el que mientras que para el cr\u00e9dito al sector inmobiliario se utilice una estimaci\u00f3n de p\u00e9rdidas cre\u00edbles -seg\u00fan la AHE (Asociaci\u00f3n Hipotecaria Espa\u00f1ola)- de un 28,6% en el escenario base, para los cr\u00e9ditos con garant\u00eda hipotecaria se estime un mero 1,8%, pr\u00e1cticamente la mitad de lo que consideran los expertos del sector, expertos que estiman este porcentaje en torno al ratio de dudosidad de estos cr\u00e9ditos, tal y como puede observarse en la tabla de la AHE.<\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"591\" border=\"0\" height=\"482\" alt=\"\" style=\"width: 539px; height: 441px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2026\/04\/RH3.avif\" \/><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Utilizando entonces la estimaci\u00f3n m\u00e1s cre\u00edble de dudosidad publicada por la AHE -3,5% si tenemos en cuenta de forma conservadora la tendencia de estos \u00faltimos meses-, la cifra de p\u00e9rdidas previstas para los cr\u00e9ditos con garant\u00eda hipotecaria pasar\u00eda de los 10.900 a los 21.070 millones de euros. Pr\u00e1cticamente el doble.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">En el escenario adverso, la situaci\u00f3n ser\u00eda mucho m\u00e1s cr\u00edtica y, atendiendo al resto de los supuestos macroecon\u00f3micos asumidos por el informe, estar\u00edamos hablando de un m\u00ednimo de un 9% de p\u00e9rdidas siendo bastante conservador. Esto nos dar\u00eda una cifra entorno a los 54.180 millones de euros en p\u00e9rdidas s\u00f3lo en los cr\u00e9ditos con garant\u00eda hipotecaria. M\u00e1s del doble de lo estimado para el escenario adverso por el informe de Oliver Wyman.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(102, 102, 102); line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad?=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);\"><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size: xx-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad?=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<ul style=\"margin-top: 0cm;\" type=\"square\">\n<li style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; color: black; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Por otro lado, se hace necesario realizar dos cr\u00edticas a este respecto para poner las cosas en sus sitio. <\/span><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: 0cm; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><a name=\"fal\"><\/a><span arial;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\"><span>1.<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Recordando todo lo que se ha comentado en esta entrada sobre la forma de realizar la re-evaluaci\u00f3n del valor de las viviendas ejecutadas, resulta inveros\u00edmil estimar unas p\u00e9rdidas totales para estos activos de un 55% en el escenario base cuando el departamento de an\u00e1lisis econ\u00f3mico de un gran banco lo sit\u00faa en torno a un 85% en la actualidad. Trasladando este \u00faltimo porcentaje al escenario adverso, lo m\u00e1s probable es que los bancos tuvieran tanta dificultad para colocar en el mercado los activos reales ejecutados, que este valor rondar\u00eda el 90-93%.&nbsp;<b>En euros esto supondr\u00eda un agujero de 74.800 millones en el escenario base y de 81.840 millones en el escenario adverso.<\/b><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Y esto en el supuesto muy inveros\u00edmil de que no subiera durante este per\u00edodo el n\u00famero de activos reales ejecutados en poder del sistema bancario, en cuyo caso, partiendo de que en el a\u00f1o 2011 se ejecutaron activos por un importe de unos 20.000 millones -dato que puede extraerse de la tabla incluida m\u00e1s arriba restando el concepto de \u201cIncl. Foreclosed Housing\u201d del de \u201cRetail Mortgages\u201d- y de que la situaci\u00f3n ha ido empeorando considerablemente a lo largo del presente ejercicio, podr\u00edamos estar hablando en el escenario base de una ejecuci\u00f3n durante este a\u00f1o de unos 25.000 millones y de otros 30.000 los dos pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os -las cifras podr\u00edan ser otras (superiores o inferiores) pero siempre en este entorno-. Tomando estas cifras como referencia,&nbsp;<b>el escenario base nos dejar\u00eda un agujero en el valor de los activos reales en cartera de (88.000+25.000+30.000+30.000) * 0.85% = 147.050 millones de euros. El escenario adverso nos dejar\u00eda por este concepto unas p\u00e9rdidas de (88.000+25.000+30.000+30.000) * 0.93% = 160.890 millones de euros.<\/b><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span arial;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\"><span>2.<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span>La segunda cr\u00edtica hace referencia al hecho de que como agujero financiero se considere s\u00f3lo la p\u00e9rdida esperada por los activos reales ejecutados. Dado que nuestro gobierno quer\u00eda a toda costa que el mencionado agujero de nuestros bancos estuviera en torno a los cincuenta mil millones de euros, resulta f\u00e1cil entender como a los medios de comunicaci\u00f3n se les ha tendido la trampa para que tomaran esta cifra manipulada de perdidas esperadas para los activos reales ejecutados como la cifra \u00faltima del agujero financiero que estas instituciones presentan. Nada da una idea m\u00e1s fiel de la mediocridad imperante en estos medios que el haber asumido esta verdad como absoluta.<\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Por qu\u00e9 si algo muestra este informe, a pesar de la manipulaci\u00f3n torticera en la metodolog\u00eda, en los ratios de perdidas esperadas aplicable y en las cifras de base utilizadas, es que el agujero econ\u00f3mico -o las necesidades de financiaci\u00f3n de nuestro sector financiero- es mucho, mucho mayor que esos 55.000 millones de euros del escenario adverso.<\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><b><u><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"> <\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 6pt 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><b><u><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">En el escenario base<\/span><\/u><\/b><b><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">, es decir, dejando las cosas como est\u00e1n ahora pero asumiendo porcentajes de p\u00e9rdidas m\u00e1s realistas que los planteados por el \u201cSteering Comittee\u201d, si sumamos las p\u00e9rdidas esperadas por la depreciaci\u00f3n de los activos reales ejecutados y en propiedad de los bancos a las p\u00e9rdidas esperadas por los cr\u00e9ditos en cartera fallidos, el agujero financiero -las necesidades financieras- que el sistema bancario tendr\u00eda que cubrir con provisiones sumar\u00edan un total de 64.900 + 21.700 + 14.700 + 25.000 + 5.200 + 8.700 + 147.500 =&nbsp;<u>287.700 millones de euros.<\/u><\/span><\/b><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><b><u><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">En el escenario adverso<\/span><\/u><\/b><b><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">, tomando porcentajes de deterioro econ\u00f3mico realistas para una situaci\u00f3n peor incluso que la que tenemos ahora, las p\u00e9rdidas esperadas totales del sistema sumar\u00edan un total de 97.100 + 54.180 + 25.400 + 39.400 + 8.800 + 13.800 + 160.890 =&nbsp;<u>399.570 millones de euros<\/u>.<\/span><\/b><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;Unos cien mil m\u00e1s que en el escenario base.<\/span><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/span> <\/p>\n<p align=\"center\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><b><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 12pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <u>\u00bfLos modelos macroecon\u00f3micos?<\/u><\/span><\/b><span arial?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Antes de pasar al detalle de los agujeros financieros instituci\u00f3n por instituci\u00f3n, me gustar\u00eda comentar otros errores intelectuales que hacen de este informe algo bastante alejado de lo que deber\u00eda haber sido. <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Cuando se explica el m\u00e9todo utilizado para calcular la probabilidad de impago -Probability of default- en los cr\u00e9ditos al sector inmobiliario se dice que fundamentalmente se utiliza la informaci\u00f3n extra\u00edda de la experiencia similar en per\u00edodos anteriores y, mas concretamente, la relaci\u00f3n entre el importe del cr\u00e9dito y el valor de los bienes construidos -LTV \u00f3 \u201cLoan To Value\u201d-, la localizaci\u00f3n y el tipo de los bienes construidos, el tipo de cr\u00e9dito concedido y el hist\u00f3rico de impagos de cada entidad. Es decir, la demanda y, m\u00e1s en concreto, la capacidad de compra de los potenciales adquirentes de los bienes que se pretenden construir y vender para devolver los cr\u00e9ditos bajo an\u00e1lisis no interviene en absoluto en la determinaci\u00f3n de la probabilidad de impago de estos. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\">&nbsp;<span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Ya me gustar\u00eda a m\u00ed que hubieran publicado todo el an\u00e1lisis econom\u00e9trico que utilizan los se\u00f1ores de Oliver Wyman para hacernos creer que el hist\u00f3rico de impagos de cada entidad es una variable explicativa importante para adivinar la evoluci\u00f3n futura de la probabilidad de impago. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Respecto al modelo macroecon\u00f3mico a aplicar para la estimaci\u00f3n de la calidad del cr\u00e9dito a promotores inmobiliarios<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"591\" border=\"0\" height=\"451\" alt=\"\" style=\"width: 524px; height: 392px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2026\/04\/RH4.avif\" \/><\/p>\n<p><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">llama la atenci\u00f3n la utilizaci\u00f3n del precio del suelo pero no el de las viviendas como factor determinante de la evoluci\u00f3n de la probabilidad de impago, como si el precio del suelo reflejara todo el desequilibrio que se ha introducido en el mercado inmobiliario durante estos \u00faltimos a\u00f1os. Tambi\u00e9n se observa la ausencia del IPC o de la capacidad de compra de los salarios en el modelo macroecon\u00f3mico. Tampoco vemos por ning\u00fan lado los plazos de amortizaci\u00f3n, es decir, el n\u00famero de a\u00f1os en que hay que devolver el cr\u00e9dito solicitado. Vaya un modelo. Vaya unos economistas.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/span><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Cuando un poco m\u00e1s adelante en el informe vemos el modelo macroecon\u00f3mico aplicado para la estimaci\u00f3n de la calidad del cr\u00e9dito a compradores de viviendas con garant\u00eda hipotecaria. <\/span><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"593\" border=\"0\" height=\"460\" alt=\"\" style=\"width: 523px; height: 402px;\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/11\/2026\/04\/RH4BIS.avif\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">podemos observar como en este caso s\u00ed que se utiliza el precio de la vivienda como factor responsable, algo m\u00e1s l\u00f3gico que la utilizaci\u00f3n del precio del suelo si tenemos en cuenta que el primero incorpora al \u00faltimo.&nbsp; <\/span><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Sin embargo, mirando todos los factores incluidos en este nuevo modelo, algo llama poderosamente la atenci\u00f3n. Se trata de la diferencia en el impacto que se le otorga en este \u00faltimo modelo al desempleo frente al que se le otorga en el modelo utilizado para comprender los impagos de cr\u00e9ditos otorgados a los promotores inmobiliarios. En este modelo se le otorga una importancia de aprox. un 30% frente a un aprox. 70% en el anterior. Y tanta divergencia entre variables b\u00e1sicas de dos modelos que buscan estudiar la calidad de los cr\u00e9ditos a sectores tan emparentados y en el mismo escenario deja bien clara la falta de capacidad de los que han desarrollado dichos modelos. No puede ser que la variaci\u00f3n de un 1% en el desempleo implique que la calidad del cr\u00e9dito a los compradores de viviendas con garant\u00eda hipotecaria empeora tan s\u00f3lo un 0,3% mientras que la misma variaci\u00f3n en el desempleo implique un empeoramiento de un 0,7% en la calidad de los cr\u00e9ditos concedidos a las promotoras inmobiliarias, inmobiliarias cuya actividad consiste en construir viviendas que han de comprar los primeros. Dos actividades tan relacionadas no pueden verse afectadas de forma tan dispar por el mismo factor econ\u00f3mico.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"> <span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Siguiendo con el informe, en su p\u00e1gina 34 dan una explicaci\u00f3n curiosa al hecho de que Oliver Wyman estime una cifra de p\u00e9rdidas tan baja -5.5%- en el escenario adverso para los cr\u00e9ditos con garant\u00eda hipotecaria. Seg\u00fan dicen, el hecho de tener un LTV -\u201dLoan to Value\u201d o relaci\u00f3n entre el importe del cr\u00e9dito y el valor de la vivienda hipotecada- tan bajo (62%) hace del mercado espa\u00f1ol espa\u00f1ol un caso \u00fanico en el entorno internacional y permite estimar, siguiendo estudios realizados en pa\u00edses como Irlanda o los EEUU, la perdida en este segmento del cr\u00e9dito alrededor de un 5,5% frente a un 8,9% en Irlanda y un 7,4% en EEUU.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Lo que no est\u00e1 nada claro es si ese LTV ha sido calculado para los precios de las viviendas en el momento de la concesi\u00f3n de estos cr\u00e9ditos o para el momento de la realizaci\u00f3n del informe. Y es que no es cre\u00edble que en nuestro pa\u00eds el LTV sea tan bajo si no es porque el valor de las viviendas tomado para el c\u00e1lculo ha sido actualizado en un momento pico de la burbuja inmobiliaria. La mayor\u00eda de las instituciones crediticias espa\u00f1olas dan cr\u00e9ditos hipotecarios por un importe medio equivalente al 80% del precio de las viviendas a adquirir mediante dichos cr\u00e9ditos y algunas incluso dan -para viviendas en sus balances y vendidas a trav\u00e9s de sus webs inmobiliarias- y han dado -durante los a\u00f1os de la burbuja inmobiliaria- cr\u00e9ditos por el 100% de dicho precio.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Por todo ello, y como creo que el c\u00e1lculo del LTV en los cr\u00e9ditos con garant\u00eda hipotecaria para Espa\u00f1a ha sido manipulado deliberadamente para dar un LTV artificialmente bajo, en los c\u00e1lculos que he realizado m\u00e1s arriba he aplicado un porcentaje de p\u00e9rdidas en este segmento mucho m\u00e1s parecido al de Irlanda. Eso s\u00ed, empeorado por las particulares circunstancias que nos est\u00e1n haciendo vivir -y que nos va a tocar sufrir a\u00fan mucho m\u00e1s- este gobierno de ineptos que tenemos la desgracia de padecer aqu\u00ed&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <\/span><\/span><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><b><u><span arial?=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" verdana?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"> <br \/><\/span><\/u><\/b><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><b><u><span arial?=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" verdana?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" mso-bidi-font-family:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"> Sobre la capacidad de absorci\u00f3n de p\u00e9rdidas<\/span><\/u><\/b>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; <br \/><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"> Veamos ahora que dice el Informe Wyman sobre la capacidad de absorci\u00f3n de p\u00e9rdidas de nuestro sistema bancario.<span new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad?=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: rgb(102, 102, 102);\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 6pt 0cm; vertical-align: baseline;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: x-small; color: black;\">\u201cThe solvency position of the entities is estimated based on the amount of credit losses they can withstand under different scenarios, while still complying with capital requirements at the end of the period.\u201d <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"> <\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Curioso comienzo del repaso a la metodolog\u00eda utilizada para calcular la capacidad de absorci\u00f3n este que deja tan claro el que las instituciones han de cumplir los requisitos de capital al final del per\u00edodo. Ser\u00e1 por eso que para cada escenario cambian esos requisitos de capital. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\" style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">Tambi\u00e9n llama mucho la atenci\u00f3n los criterios comunes y las restricciones impuestas por el Comit\u00e9 de Expertos -ECC- para el ajuste de los planes de negocio de las entidades financieras que se ha llevado a cabo <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" inherit?,?serif?;=\"\" new=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black;\">\u201c<\/span><\/i><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">In adjusting the entities\u2019 business plans, we also needed to take into account the following restrictions and common criteria which were imposed by the ECC : <\/span><\/i><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Ensure zero growth of deposit balances in the base scenario, and a -3% CAGR in the adverse scenario, at a system level (based on the situation experienced in recent crises in other countries) <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Ensure that the expected credit deleverage defined by the macroeconomic scenario is achieved <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Maintain current industry pricing levels (spreads) for deposits and credit in the industry <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Ensure that restructuring costs and expected savings are in line with previous experience in Spain <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Ensure zero growth of total commissions income in the base scenario, and a drop in the adverse scenario <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Cap ROF (\u201cResultado de Operaciones Financieras\u201d) revenue at the maximum of the average value achieved over the last three years. This source of revenue includes several concepts such as, income obtained from the trading book, hedge derivatives and buy bucks of subordinated liabilities and asset-backed securities. This implies a ~50% reduction when compared to 3 year historical average. <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Cap \u201cFixed income investment portfolio\u201d revenues at 2012 projected levels <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">Apply a 30% haircut to dividend income under the adverse scenario <\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt 1cm; vertical-align: baseline; text-indent: -18pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><i><span lang=\"EN-US\" style=\"font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-family: Wingdings;\"><span>\u00a7<span times=\"\" roman??=\"\" new=\"\" style=\"font-weight: normal; font-size: 7pt; line-height: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\">The banking entities must fill any funding gap caused by the changes to deposit growth with wholesale funding. This wholesale funding is priced at the estimate of the relevant market rate for a specific banking entity\u201d <\/span><\/i><span lang=\"EN-US\" en-us?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" style=\"font-size: 9pt; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-family: Arial;\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"> <\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">La raz\u00f3n de que el Comit\u00e9 de Expertos -ECC- considere que los dep\u00f3sitos van a seguir al mismo nivel durante estos pr\u00f3ximos dos a\u00f1os es que sabe con seguridad que el Banco Central Europeo va a inundar de liquidez el sistema para compensar la disminuci\u00f3n en la velocidad de circulaci\u00f3n del dinero que la espiral contractiva trae consigo. Por si el lector no lo sabe el volumen total de dep\u00f3sitos en los bancos est\u00e1 directamente relacionado con la cantidad de dinero en circulaci\u00f3n y con la velocidad a la que ese dinero cambia de manos. El funcionamiento del&nbsp;<\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/ralpherns.files.wordpress.com\/2010\/10\/un-nuevo-multiplicador-monetario.pdf\"><span style=\"color: rgb(2, 106, 203);\"><span style=\"font-size: small;\">multiplicador monetario (pdf)<\/span><\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-size: small;\">&nbsp;nos explica como es posible que el dinero que hay depositado en los bancos sea superior al dinero total que existe realmente en el sistema. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: small;\"> <\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">Vista esta declaraci\u00f3n de intenciones, no queda m\u00e1s que encomendarse al cielo para que los que gobiernan la pol\u00edtica monetaria europea cedan su testigo a economistas m\u00e1s cualificados que entiendan que inundar el mercado de liquidez sin resolver&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" title=\"Esta crisis que nadie\u00a0entiende\" href=\"http:\/\/ralpherns.wordpress.com\/2010\/09\/29\/esta-crisis-que-nadie-entiende\/\"><span style=\"color: rgb(2, 106, 203);\">el problema que dio origen a nuestra burbuja inmobiliaria<\/span><\/a>&nbsp;es completamente suicida. <\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\">Re<span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">specto a la restricci\u00f3n sobre el crecimiento cero de los ingresos por comisiones, un cap\u00edtulo tan magro para nuestras entidades financieras -en el a\u00f1o 2011 supusieron un ingreso neto de 11.750 millones de euros-, nadie se cree que en un entorno contractivo donde todas las operaciones se reducen de forma acusada, los ingresos totales por comisiones sobre estas operaciones van a mantenerse constantes. Seg\u00fan el Bolet\u00edn estad\u00edstico del Banco de Espa\u00f1a, los ingresos netos por comisiones del sector financiero han venido reduci\u00e9ndose a\u00f1o tras a\u00f1o pasando de los 13.594 obtenidos en 2007 a los 11.750 millones de euros ya comentados en el a\u00f1o 2011.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\">&nbsp;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><\/span> <\/p>\n<p style=\"background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; margin: 0cm 0cm 0pt; vertical-align: baseline; line-height: 14.25pt; text-align: justify;\" class=\"MsoNormal\"><span mso-border-alt:=\"\" none=\"\" windowtext=\"\" 0cm?=\"\" new=\"\" arial?,?sans-serif?;=\"\" ?times=\"\" roman?;=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; color: black;\"><span ar-sa\"=\"\" mso-bidi-language:=\"\" 0cm;=\"\" windowtext=\"\" none=\"\" mso-border-alt:=\"\" es-trad;=\"\" mso-ansi-language:=\"\" en-us;=\"\" mso-fareast-language:=\"\" calibri;=\"\" mso-fareast-font-family:=\"\" arial\",\"sans-serif\";=\"\" style=\"padding: 0cm; border-width: 1pt; border-style: none; border-color: windowtext; font-size: 11.5pt; background: none repeat scroll 0% 0% white; color: rgb(201, 0, 0); line-height: 115%;\"><strong>Blog de Econom\u00eda, Pol\u00edtica, Ideas y Salud por <\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/ralpherns.wordpress.com\/about\/\"><strong>Rafael Hern\u00e1ndez N\u00fa\u00f1ez<\/strong><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El c\u00e1lculo de las p\u00e9rdidas&nbsp; Una vez repasadas las inconsistencias encontradas en la metodolog\u00eda empleada para la evaluaci\u00f3n de las p\u00e9rdidas veamos que dice el informe respecto a las p\u00e9rdidas esperadas en el sistema bancario: &nbsp; &nbsp; Aqu\u00ed han de comentarse dos cuestiones fundamentales para el an\u00e1lisis del agujero financiero que presentan nuestras instituciones financieras.&nbsp;&nbsp; [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[293,162,302],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9596","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fusiones","category-noticias","category-sectorfinanciero"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>El increible informe de Oliver Wyman.(II) de 3 - Ibercaja<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/noticias\/el-increible-informe-de-oliver-wyman-ii-de-3\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta 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