{"id":10465,"date":"2014-11-29T15:26:32","date_gmt":"2014-11-29T14:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/circulares-sindicales\/halcones-y-palomas-en-el-bce\/"},"modified":"2014-11-29T15:26:32","modified_gmt":"2014-11-29T14:26:32","slug":"halcones-y-palomas-en-el-bce","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/noticias\/halcones-y-palomas-en-el-bce\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00abHalcones\u00bb y \u00abPalomas\u00bb en el BCE"},"content":{"rendered":"

El multimillonario brit\u00e1nico Gavyn Davies, ex socio de Goldman Sachs y ex presidente de la BBC, ha hecho un excelente an\u00e1lisis de las distancias insalvables dentro del Consejo de Gobierno del BCE entre Draghi y Weidmann.<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

En el blog de macroeconom\u00eda que publica en el FT, Davies dice que esas distancias son mucho m\u00e1s anchas que las que hay en la Fed entre \u00abhalcones\u00bb y \u00abpalomas\u00bb. Draghi est\u00e1 doctrinalmente muy cerca de Bernanke, mientras que Weidmann est\u00e1 escorado mucho m\u00e1s a la derecha que los halcones de la Fed, hasta el punto que se dir\u00eda un representante de la escuela austriaca.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Hasta ahora Draghi apenas ha conseguido saltar las l\u00edneas rojas que le ponen Weidmann y sus ac\u00f3litos. Ellos, por su parte, no hacen m\u00e1s que echar agua al fuego que pretende avivar Draghi. Draghi ha hecho referencia a la importancia de anunciar un objetivo del volumen del balance del BCE, y adem\u00e1s alcanzarlo en breve, mientras que sus adversarios le ponen palos en las ruedas diciendo que \u00abno es un objetivo concreto\u00bb, y que \u00abel BCE no puede correr riesgos de cr\u00e9dito\u00bb, lo que har\u00eda si comprara masivamente deuda de cualquier pa\u00eds (este matiz no lo dicen, pero es evidente que lo piensan).<\/p>\n

?The GC has, however, prevented its president from formally adopting the balance sheet number as a \u00abtarget\u00bb. It is merely an \u00abexpectation\u00bb, as Mr Weidmann is reported to have pointedly commented the day after the last ECB meeting. Furthermore, Mr Mersch adds that the size of the balance sheet is \u00abneither an end in itself nor a fetish\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

Tampoco ven que haya que meter prisa a combatir las expectativas deflacionistas, pues no ven ning\u00fan riesgo de una din\u00e1mica de salarios y precios a la baja.<\/em><\/p>\n

Mr Draghi says that inflation must be raised \u00abas fast as possible\u00bb because \u00abthe firm anchoring of inflation expectations is critical under any circumstances\u00bb… In contrast, Mr Weidmann says that \u00aba problematic wage-price spiral is still a remote prospect\u00bb, and adds that \u00abmonetary policy matters should be considered with a degree of calm\u00bb.<\/em><\/p>\n

En otras palabras, mientras las cosas no vayan m\u00e1s lejos, no hay que preocuparse, aunque la inflaci\u00f3n este muy lejos del 2% objetivo. Por su parte, Draghi jam\u00e1s ha hablado de superarlo, solo de restablecerlo.<\/p>\n

En la opini\u00f3n de Davies, en el Consejo de Gobierno de la semana que viene, Draghi tendr\u00e1 que sacar algo de la chistera para mantener viva las expectativas que \u00e9l mismo alimenta, hasta ahora m\u00e1s con la palabra que con hechos. Pero no es de esperar que anuncie lo \u00fanico que de verdad podr\u00eda dar un giro a la situaci\u00f3n: un QE de bonos p\u00fablicos, con cantidades objetivo anunciadas, al menos mientras la Corte de Justicia de Europa no se pronuncie sobre la legalidad de las mismas (y la subsiguiente reacci\u00f3n del Tribunal Constitucional alem\u00e1n) . Adem\u00e1s, tendr\u00eda que contar con el permisos de Merkel, aunque parece ser que cuenta ya con \u00e9l para casos de emergencia. El problema es que se pongan de acuerdo ambas partes en la definici\u00f3n de emergencia.<\/p>\n

It seems unlikely that purchases of sovereign debt will be announced next week. This will need to wait until the decision of the European Court of Justice early next yearon the legality of such purchases. It may also need Mr Draghi to call on the tacit or public support of Chancellor Angela Merkel ? assuming, as he recently hinted, that he has this in his back pocket for emergencies<\/em>.<\/p>\n

Como miembro del Consejo de Gobierno figura nuestro gobernador del Banco de Espa\u00f1a, Luis Linde. \u00bfDe qu\u00e9 lado est\u00e1 en los debates mensuales? \u00bfLlevar\u00e1 una opini\u00f3n propia, formada perfilada por los excelentes economistas del Banco de Espa\u00f1a, o tendr\u00e1 que subsumirse a lo que le diga Rajoy, que a su vez es lo que le ha susurrado Merkel? Ociosa pregunta, en todo caso sin respuesta, porque no hay publicaci\u00f3n de actas, como las hay en otros bancos centrales. Podemos sospechar que el Banco de Espa\u00f1a, pese a su Estatuto de Autonom\u00eda, est\u00e1 en el lado del Bundesbank, aunque solo sea porque cuando hay dos bandos tan distantes, y uno es el que apoya Merkel, parece dif\u00edcil imaginar alguna fisura en esa l\u00ednea de comunicaci\u00f3n de arriba. Adem\u00e1s, Linde no discrepa (por sus declaraciones como gobernador), de la l\u00ednea de Wiedmann. Aunque eso es lo de menos.  <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El multimillonario brit\u00e1nico Gavyn Davies, ex socio de Goldman Sachs y ex presidente de la BBC, ha hecho un excelente an\u00e1lisis de las distancias insalvables dentro del Consejo de Gobierno del BCE entre Draghi y Weidmann. En el blog de macroeconom\u00eda que publica en el FT, Davies dice que esas distancias son mucho m\u00e1s anchas […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"advgb_blocks_editor_width":"","advgb_blocks_columns_visual_guide":"","editor_notices":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[308,162],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economiapolitica","category-noticias"],"yoast_head":"\n"Halcones" y "Palomas" en el BCE - Ibercaja<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ccooservicios.es\/ibercaja\/circulares-sindicales\/halcones-y-palomas-en-el-bce\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\""Halcones" y "Palomas" en el BCE - Ibercaja\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"El multimillonario brit\u00e1nico Gavyn Davies, ex socio de Goldman Sachs y ex presidente de la BBC, ha hecho un excelente an\u00e1lisis de las distancias insalvables dentro del Consejo de Gobierno del BCE entre Draghi y Weidmann. 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